Decisions I model
The common thread is a choice that costs real money and can't easily be undone. If yours isn't on this list, it probably still fits.
Hiring
- Should we hire now or wait?
- How many people can we responsibly add?
- What does the hire need to produce to justify the cost?
Growth
- How hard should we push on growth this year?
- How much should go into acquiring customers?
- Do we have the sales capacity to support more volume?
- What happens to cash and runway if growth accelerates?
Marketing
- Where should the next marketing dollar go?
- Which channels deserve more, and which have stopped paying back?
- Is marketing the bottleneck, or is something else limiting growth?
Pricing and customer economics
- Should we raise prices?
- Which customer segments actually create value?
- Is another point of retention worth more than another new customer?
Capital allocation
- Where should scarce money go when several options look good?
- Should we prioritize growth or profitability this year?
- How much cash do we need to keep back?
The objective changes the answer
Before modeling anything, we agree on what you're optimizing for, because the same decision comes out differently depending on the goal.
- Grow ARR as fast as the business can stand
- End the year with a specific cash position
- Improve profitability
- Protect runway above a floor you set
- Build long term value in the business
A plan that maximizes ARR is rarely the plan that maximizes year end cash. Naming the objective up front is what stops the analysis from quietly optimizing for the wrong thing.
When this is worth doing
This is most useful when several reasonable options exist and the money at stake is meaningful. It helps if the decision is hard to reverse once made. If the choice is obvious or easy to undo, you don't need me for it. The value goes up as the stakes and the trade-offs do.
Got one in front of you?
Tell me what you're weighing and I'll help you reach the decision that works best for you.
Discuss your decision